(Sigh) Again, national polls are meaningless since we don’t have national elections.
Last time I did this, Harris was in the hole in the swing states where it counted, let’s see how it looks now…
Arizona - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Tossup, Tie, Harris +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico - No polling data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Georgia - Tossup, Tie, Harris +1, Trump +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Virginia - Trump +1 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/Pennsylvania - Trump +2, +3, +4, Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Tie, Harris +11, +12 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Harris +1, +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota - Harris +3 to +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/So, previously, Harris was behind everywhere. She’s now moved Nevada and Georgia to tossup territory, which is good, but the notable news are the HUGE gains in Michigan and Minnesota.
HOWEVER… Plotted on the electoral map:
The Triumverate is Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Losing any one of those three tanks her and she’s down in PA.
She could win all the tossup states and still lose without PA.
The electoral college is still close, yes, but it is not what you are saying in some of those states. For instance, the Virginia polling you cite stood out to me as not matching most of the polling even when Biden was running, so I looked into that:
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There aren’t polls in 538 for Virginia that were run after Biden dropped out
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The range your writing to me looks though you are looking at only a results of the singlular FAU/Mainstreet USA Poll from not only before Biden dropped out, but the days after Trump was shot. This poll also has a 4-5% margin of error due to low sample rates. The reason I suspect that this was the only poll being looked at is the poll has a ton of entries in 538 because it was broken down quite a bit. It asked likely voters and register voters about Harris as a hypothetical both with third parties and without (this creates 4 entries in there). The difference between likely and registered voters created a trump +1 and a trump +4.
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Most of the other hypothetical Harris polls in Virginia before Biden dropped showed Harris up. Considering Harris has generally improved compared to hypothetical polling before Biden dropped in most states, it’s unlikely to be Trump +1 to +4 at the moment
538’s moving averages show a bit of a different picture for some of those states as well. For instance, Pennsylvania shows a narrow +0.6% Harris average (note though that they do weight register voter polls different than likely voter polls)
Election is still close, but there has been movement in swing states. Enough that some election models are now changing who is most likely to win if only slightly. For instance, Nate Silver’s model puts Harris just a bit above in win % including electoral college in it
Just going with what we have, and like I say, there has been positive movement for her since the last time I ran these stats.
The concern for Virginia was that it had been solid for Biden, with him out, it’s definitely at risk.
What will be interesting is to see how all this changes once she picks a VP and they start team campaigning.
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Some newer YouGov and RealClearPolling reports: https://ijr.com/trump-harris-sit-on-razors-edge-with-voters-in-battleground-states-poll-reveals/
In the rust belt, Harris is tied with Trump at 48% in Michigan, 50% in Pennsylvania and is just one point behind in Wisconsin at 49%, according to the poll. Previously, Trump was leading Biden in Michigan by 2.1 points, in Pennsylvania by 4.5 points and in Wisconsin by 2.9 points, according to polling averages from RealClearPolling
Harris has also gained ground in the south and the sun belt, tied with Trump at 49% in Arizona, trailing by three points in Georgia and North Carolina and leading by two points in Nevada. Before Harris became the presumptive nominee, Trump was leading Biden in Arizona by 5.8 points, in Georgia by 3.8 points, in North Carolina by 5.4 points and in Nevada by 5.6 points, according to RealClearPolling averages.
Yup, the momentum has swung back away from Trump, there should be another bump when the VP tour starts and another for the Convention.
The question then becomes if it can hold through November.
I really look forward to re-running these stats in September/October.
There is literally zero percent chance that Trump is up in Virginia. If anything you can calibrate the other polls from this.
What are the error bounds on those polls? Last I checked they were all within the margin of error for swing states.
Each poll is different, but in general the margin of error is 3% to 5%.
That’s a whole lot of red
It is, fortunately, square miles don’t get a vote. :)
So it has to be Shapiro.
Dems absolutely need at least +5 % to eke out a win in the electoral college.
This sounds like dems celebrating too soon to me
We’re celebrating that the trend is positive.
Look at it this way: when polls continued to decline under Biden the trajectory, the trend, portended a very bad outcome and signalled a change in strategy needed to occur.
When Democrats see these headlines, it means the battlefield is shifting in our favor or the wind is in our sails even if the war isn’t yet won.
That’s all. If a downward spiral of polls spells despair, an upward ascent of polls spells hype and enthusiasm, which tends to he contagious and self-sustaining like a nuclear reaction.
Actually I didn’t see that here at all.
When the polls were bad I mainly saw the blue no matter who crowd go on and on about how inaccurate the polls are
Niche communities on a niche website like Lemmy are not representative of the wider democratic sample set to be fair. I was definitely one of those people sounding the alarm on here. For a considerable time many people felt Biden was our locked-in nominee and we had to support him no matter what because there was no alternative choice. And true, Vote Blue No Matter Who still applies whether polls go well or not.
But luckily, the wider Democratic party put enough pressure to have Biden stand down.
The polls are inaccurate at times, that they don’t necessarily show the exact amount of support a candidate has. A change in trends across multiple polls over time, however, can show changing attitudes, even if the specific percentage of support estimated is not necessarily accurate in each poll.
They are a toxic bane and should be named, shamed, and ignored.
5% at a minimum.
8% to be a real favorite.
12% percent and it’s locked up.
Well technically you hypothetically could win an election with only 23% of the popular vote.
Yeah but we have actual data to support what I said
What is called for is more specific poll results. Like included in the data is that California went up 5% for Harris. Which doesn’t matter in real terms, those electoral votes were never up for grabs.
In the states that are considered credibly not already settled, the polling results don’t seem to have moved much, except maybe Pennsylvania is a hair more toward Harris than before, but it’s still well within the margin of error it is so close.
Which is why 1% lead in polls is not very promising for kamala
And on top of that I’m assuming the polls have a margin of error at the very least of 2%
I mean this is why any blue maga from the previous 8 months needs to be named, shamed, and tied to a stake at the edge of town.
Democrats never needed to be in this position, and it wasn’t Biden to blame for the unforced error, but the anti democratic culture within the DNC, main stream media, and large social media that worked it’s ass of to shut down any questioning of Biden as presumptive nominee. That did more damage than Trump ever could have. Trump isn’t the reason Harris starts off polling in the 40s, Blue MAGA is.
The VP pick up seems make or break for the early momentum Harris got. Shapiro seems like cold water; Walz seems like it would add fuel. If she goes Shapiro, this 1% week over week delta is going to stall out, because she’s signaled to progressives and black and brown people she doesn’t take Gaza seriously and that puts MI on the chopping block.
Prob the most interesting presidential race in a hundred years.
Oh swallow that whole bowl of shit and quit complaining, she’s going to choose Hillary Clinton lol
(From Nina Turner Wikipedia page)
She told Peter Nicholas of The Atlantic, "it’s like saying to somebody, 'You have a bowl of shit in front of you, and all you’ve got to do is eat half of it instead of the whole thing.
Walz went from 25% to 53% over the course of the day on polymarket.
Damn I might have to vote for her actually god damn let’s see who is more progressive…. As a voter in a solid blue state if she chooses buttigieg I’m leaving it blank… I love that he is gay I hate that he is neoliberal
If the rally is in Pennsylvania which is for Pennsylvania
As someone who likes space travel funding I also like the Astronaut but I guess he is a corporate lackey
Its between Shapiro and Walz. Buttigieg is out, so is the astronaut. I guess we don’t find out tonight.
I’m holding all celebration until the election is certified and there is no sign of insurrection.
no sign of insurrection
For what it’s worth: I’m not a democrat. Ask me why I’m supporting a democrat and will say in no uncertain terms there is no choice to be made this election. I mean there’s a lot of reasons, but it is utter insanity this isn’t enough by a long shot.
My dad was the same way after Jan6. Before he had been a hardcore drumpf supporter.
Seeing the attack on our capitol finally broke him out of it. I don’t know if he’s going to vote at all but I am sure that he won’t be voting red for the first time in his life.
My aunt? Well… not so much…
Thank you for being clear sighted about what has happened.
That shit never would have flown with me. Again, I might be libertarian, but not the crazy kind.
But for whatever it’s worth, this whole last decade has been weird. I know, personally, people who showed up with the goofy “tea party” hats that just kinda quietly bowed out, and on the other end people who became more vocal. It’s just not normal. There’s not a consistency between teaparty/not teaparty republicans and Trump.
I’m glad your Dad at least is in the former. I’ll argue all day with those people about basic human rights, but my point is shit is fucked. The people I know, whether or not I agreed with them, that were on those statehouse steps, are not turning out to vote. I get fiscal conservatives, I get structuralists, I hope someday to meet one or the other, because certainly neither has ever been elected to office.
I know exactly one fiscal conservative and she thought the Tea Party was trouble long before either the media or I had figured out they were anything more than a goofy protest group.
That said, she was one person out of thousands. I used to live in a very red state and the vast majority of my fellow citizens there were the exactly stereotypical bigoted redneck that drumpf’s bombastic style appeals to.
There are legitimate concerns about our spending and debt. Fiscal conservatives aren’t totally wrong when they bring that up, but it’s never the sacred “free market” that has to take the blows. The last proper fiscal conservative was Eisenhower, and even that’s a mixed bag.
It’s so fun and cool that the person with the most votes still loses but only if not Republican. Great system.
Most votes usually means the big states and electoral college is more closely associated with representation in the House of Representatives…… so the electoral college is somewhat related to population but it’s off by a lot… there are also other factors, for example states with overall low populations (generally republican)
Harris already erased Trump’s swing-state lead:
There’s a positive trend but I don’t think it’s as pronounced as some are celebrating it to be, or is it enough
There’s momentum at the moment and things can change quickly. But there’s just no doubt that Biden’s decision to step back and Harris stepping up has sent Trump reeling.
Agreed, as a progressive I’m actually getting excited for once in a long while
The campaign certainly isn’t celebrating too soon (Walz was a smart VP pick vs Vance who was clearly a celebratory lap pick). But yes, many people in the American left seem to think Harris is going to shit all over Trump despite her only just pulling even during her honeymoon period.
I live in a blue state and I was planning on leaving president option blank on my ballot for Biden or harris.
Now seriously considering filling in that bubble to Harris / walz and encouraging family and friends to do the same…. But again I live in a state that is going to be blue
Agreed. It’s not over until it’s over. If people haven’t learned that by now, then clearly they weren’t paying close enough attention in 2016. Get off your asses, vote, put in the work, and if you win then you can celebrate.
KAMALA HARRIS EDGES??!!!?!!!?!!11?1!!1!1!!
“Do not come”
THE PROPHECY HAS BEEN FULFILLED
It shouldn’t even be a decision. But that’s where we are now….
VOTE.
Vote.
I gotta say, the way politicians are elevated to celebrity status in the U.S. is scary.
By election time they will probably say she’s going to win. Seen this before.
I’m more interested in what the swing state figures look like post-honeymoon bump.
Post-honeymoon bump? You’ve used this term in multiple of your comments. I’m interested to see the polls after a debate. Also… @aussie.zone is a little sus
Post-honeymoon bump?
What are you asking here? Be more specific with the question and I can give you an answer.
Also… @aussie.zone is a little sus
?
VOTE!!!
Volunteer to give rides to those that won’t be able to vote without it. Do what you can, take the extra step. This one is the most important election you’ve been alive for.
It’s a trend, so you’ll see many stories like this as the weeks go by. Once the pollsters start calling purple states, then start paying attention.
Does anyone know how they come up with these projections?
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