It goes without saying that when choosing, if necessary and as a retaliatory measure, targets to be hit by systems such as Oreshnik on Ukrainian territory, we will in advance suggest that civilians and citizens of friendly countries residing in those areas leave danger zones. We will do so for humanitarian reasons, openly and publicly, without fear of counter-moves coming from the enemy, who will also be receiving this information.
Why without fear? Because there are no means of countering such weapons today. Missiles attack targets at a speed of Mach 10, which is 2.5 to 3 kilometers per second. Air defense systems currently available in the world and missile defense systems being created by the Americans in Europe cannot intercept such missiles. It is impossible.
Every single one of those warnings will be called “russian propaganda” before wherever they strike hit. Though it would be smart if NATO intelligence did fake warnings.
That’s the whole problem here. If Russia does nothing then NATO will say it was a bluff and continue to escalate. If Russia retaliates then they frame it as Russia escalating and NATO having to stand firm in face of nuclear blackmail and whatever. So, regardless of how Russia responds there’s almost guaranteed to be more escalation.
That’s the thing, Russia cannot de-escalate unilaterally. De-escalation requires both sides to want it. We know that neither NATO nor the current Ukrainian leadership want peace. They want everything else, no matter how unrealistic or unreasonable but they don’t want peace. That doesn’t give Russia much room. It’s options are to capitulate or continue matching the escalatory moves.
Exactly, and this means Russia has to walk a tightrope of avoiding WW3 while still achieving its objectives through force.
I see a very grim possibility in the west’s behavior. Namely in comments from the Pentagon about using nuclear weapons when they’re “to the US advantage to do so” and this talk of a new nuclear posture for the US to be able to take out China, Russia, DPRK all in one blow. I fear the plan is simply that. To create a situation with enough chaos while sewing doubt among their enemies that they’ll actually do it, then actually doing it while they’re doubting that they should react to say their radar going down because surely the US wouldn’t really nuke them right and THEY wouldn’t want to start a nuclear war by launching themselves right? (reasonable human stuff) To salami-slice their way up the escalation ladder so they’re right there at that point and then blind them in some way with some thinly veiled excuse that it’s for their behavior or some alleged escalation by them, use that moment of blindness to launch half the US arsenal and attempt to completely destroy Russia, China, DPRK or at least their military centers and counter-strike capabilities with nuclear missile subs being first strikers that hit and attempt to suppress command and control and primary launch locations of the enemy followed by further away and later arriving land-based launches to mop up the rest and possibly air burst in the path of projected incoming retaliatory wave. After that just have to take much less damage than them by suppressing any late response, then move in, install some compradors backed by their army or someone else’s and enjoy the new American century.
Because I’m sure they’d do it if they could get away with it but also somewhat confident that if they know they’ll die themselves that they won’t do it.
The utmost concern now is CREDIBILITY by Russia, China, etc that they can’t be taken by surprise, that they have the technology, the infrastructure, the chain of command, the redundancy, and most importantly they have the desire and fortitude to actually return fire without hesitation and destroy the west.
It’s why I think Putin really should espond to the ATACMs provocation more directly if it continues after Trump takes office. Right now they can wave it off as Biden being a senile mad-man who’s nearly dead, just lost power and is trying to sabotage his rival but once Trump is in office if it continues then it’s policy of the US and Russia knowingly gritting and bearing it signals to the west they can escalate further with their salami-slicing and the Russian threats will continue to be empty.
And given how the west really doesn’t want to lose I worry if they perceive Russia as flinching, as being afraid that they’ll try and freeze the conflict through force. That the next escalation will be when after Ukraine’s lines falter they send in NATO troops, give Putin an ultimatum, do the whole “but north koreans” excuse and say the lines are drawn about where they are now and Ukraine WILL be militarized as part of NATO and Russia gets to keep only the parts it has already captured at which point the options for Russia are not good in trying to fight and displace large NATO army with further actions only inescapably pushing us up the escalation ladder.
I certainly hope some good like Russia giving Ansar Allah weapons to push the US out of the area comes of this.
assuming that this doesn’t lead to world war 3: i wonder if this will prod the russians into developing weaponry whose capability fits between nuclear icbm’s and short range defense like the west has.
They already have them and just demo’ed it in the Oreshnik which is an intermediate range hypersonic missile formerly banned by a treaty against IRM the US under Trump pulled out of. Those missiles can hit all of Europe, are capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads but are not in the same class or range as truly global ICBM missiles.
So they have them, they’re putting them into further production and if the west doesn’t stop provoking them they’ll likely hit the west with them at which point the west can either be reasonable and back down or continue their petulant child tantrum of claiming Russia is the aggressor and that Russia is the one escalating at which point we could see nuclear war.
All I can say is I hope Russia doesn’t let them salami slice things much further. The west is convinced they can play chicken with them, that they can salami-slice their way into doing everything right up to using nuclear weapons and get away without a Russian response against them directly and I worry what that means in terms of emboldening the west to escalate and attempt to stop the conflict on their terms which either means a loss for the multi-polar order and Russia or the possibility of nuclear war. Anything that pre-empts that, disrupts the cycle of arrogant escalation without fear by the west would be good. The question is, is there anything that can be done other than capitulation? How to thread this needle.
As has been pointed out. If Russia did the same thing to the US that the US is doing to Russia. Like if it gave Mexican cartels Kinzals and they used them and killed US civilians and blew up part of a naval base or something. The US wouldn’t be like “aw shucks, those cartels need to be taught a lesson”. They’d hit them back but then immediately after they’d hit Russia back directly for attacking them and tell Russia they’ll be in a war if they don’t stop immediately.
The Pentagon is also cryptically stating they could use nuclear weapons in a first strike if they can get the drop on Russia. These maniacs are trying to end the world rather than lose a conflict which will lead to a blow to their image and destroy their hegemony. I still hold out hope that for many of them this is just Nixon’s madman theory being played out and they won’t really let the world be destroyed and will at the last moment back down will crying and playing the victim all the while.
