[Paywalled,Full Article in the comments.]

  • Doggy4545@lemmy.worldOP
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    3
    ·
    edit-2
    1 year ago

    On june 11th Australia prevailed over India to win cricket’s World Test Championship. Although national teams have played each other in the Test format since 1877, this event is new. Australia are only its second victors, after New Zealand in 2021.

    The International Cricket Council (icc) has held world championships for one-day cricket since 1975, and for t20 matches, which last just a few hours, since 2007. As these short formats have gained popularity, purists have fretted that Test cricket’s stature was at risk. In response, the icc launched the World Test Championship.

    Because Test matches can last up to five days, too long for prolonged tournaments to be practical, the icc devised an awkward system. Over two years of games, teams earn points to qualify for a final. However, they play varying numbers of matches, and face different levels of opposition. For example, Bangladesh played 12 games, and none versus Australia and England, two of cricket’s giants. In contrast, half of India’s 18 matches were against those teams.

    So were Australia deserving winners? One tool to assess their strength is Elo, a rating system built for chess that has been used for various sports, but rarely for cricket. All teams start with a score of 1,500 and then swap points after each match, with the winner’s rating rising and the loser’s falling. The more surprising the result, the more points get traded. Elo also accounts for home advantage, a big edge for teams that modify pitches to suit their styles.

    Calculating Elo scores back to 1947, we find that the World Test Championship got this one right: the world’s best team is indeed Australia. By historical standards, its rating of 1,685 is similar to South Africa’s peak in 2013. However, the team pales in comparison with Australia’s own past. In January 2008 an Australian team packed with stars achieved a record Elo score of 1,797. If that team were to time-travel to the present, Elo suggests it would beat today’s Australians 66% of the time.

    The most striking recent trend in the data is the sharp rise in England’s rating since the team made Brendon McCullum its coach in May 2022. Under his stewardship, England have taken a Test-wide trend of trying to score faster and put it into overdrive. This hyper-aggressive style, nicknamed “Bazball”, has borne fruit: England have won 11 of their past 13 Tests, while scoring an unprecedented five runs per over. During that period, their Elo score has risen by nearly 100 points, to 1,637. This week, England begin the Ashes, their biennial five-match series against Australia. If they win at least three Tests, they will become Elo’s top-rated team.

    England’s surge has aligned performance on the pitch with cricket’s finances. The sport’s economic titan is India, expected to account for 39% of international media revenue across all formats in 2024-27. England and Australia jointly make up a further 13%. Because broadcasters pay only paltry amounts for Test matches lacking a “big-three” team, other countries have little economic incentive to play them. This leads weaker teams to participate in fewer Test matches, and has left the once-mighty West Indies struggling to pay their players. On current trends, New Zealand, the world’s first official Test champions, will probably be the last winners outside the big three for years to come

    • aragon@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      3
      ·
      1 year ago

      To be honest, the prognosis for test cricket is very negative. If only the big 3 can sustain test cricket, it is going to wither away. I am all for replacing one day with T20 but it will be harder let go of test cricket. There is nothing like test cricket. Wonder what can be done to make it reasonably profitable for the non big 3 countries.

    • Weirdmusic@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      2
      ·
      1 year ago

      I just don’t think England are going to come out on top of this series. Honestly, I’d love them to, it’s just that there’s a fragility to their team that’s personified by Moeem Ali. Ali is a top notch spinner but he simply hasn’t had the sort of tough preparation required to play a test at this level. Unfortunately, I can’t see any other fit spinners who could replace him. Compare this with Australia who have a Nathan Lyon in red hot form and Murphy lurking in the wings. I’m loving the style of cricket England are playing but I’m not convinced they have the depth of players required to pull off a series win. I would be absolutely delighted to be proven wrong.

      • joshinya@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        2
        ·
        1 year ago

        Honestly same as an Aussie. I’m surprised either team has done as well as they have in current conditions. Back when there was whispers of them offering Langer the coach job, I joked I might become a team England fan. But Mccullum is a better fit and just as easy for me to get behind as a leader. At the end of the day they’re playing good cricket under him, although I think they need a couple more years to refine their approach before it can be relied on in a big 3 match. I was more skeptical about Stokes as test captain, but he’s done well so far as well. Keep proving me wrong lads, love to see it.