• JoBo
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    11 months ago

    It’s not like rolling a die, the toss has to end at a point in time and time is linear. T=1 must happen before T=2. At any given time, the difference between the amount of time spent facing up and facing down will be between 0 and T/2n where T is the total time spent in the air and n is the number of spins completed in T. The more times it spins, the smaller the maximum difference between the two but there will always be a difference. It has more chances to land face up than it does face down.

    Get your head around Benford’s Law. It’s a headfuck but it’s true for certain data generating processes. A coin toss doesn’t produce the same kind of data but it is the equivalent process for a binary outcome.

    E2A: actually, it is a bit like rolling a die (because they come to rest at time T too). But that’s a much more complicated problem because the die doesn’t just land, it bounces around a bit. There’s some stuff out there about this for craps and I guess it’s why the dice have to hit the back wall. Any edge due to technique must be small enough for casinos not to care about it.