Polls only predict well in places where you don’t need polls… hence their 78% success rate. What is their rate in closer elections? Likely right at 50%…useless.
The article talks about this and why it’s a bad metric. If you’re going to ignore their descriptive argument, you’ll just ignore my less than descriptive argument here.
But rest assured that at least part of the problem here is that you don’t understand statistics and probability.
Polls only predict well in places where you don’t need polls… hence their 78% success rate. What is their rate in closer elections? Likely right at 50%…useless.
The article talks about this and why it’s a bad metric. If you’re going to ignore their descriptive argument, you’ll just ignore my less than descriptive argument here.
But rest assured that at least part of the problem here is that you don’t understand statistics and probability.