jeffw@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 16 days agoBiden is on track to beat inflation and lose the presidencywww.vox.comexternal-linkmessage-square27fedilinkarrow-up168arrow-down123
arrow-up145arrow-down1external-linkBiden is on track to beat inflation and lose the presidencywww.vox.comjeffw@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 16 days agomessage-square27fedilink
minus-squareShunkW@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up6arrow-down2·16 days agoWasn’t 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
minus-squareSkepticpunk@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up9·edit-216 days agoNo. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.
minus-squarecbarrick@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up7arrow-down1·16 days agoEveryone was wrong in 2016. 538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere. And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.
minus-squareistanbullu@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkarrow-up1·16 days ago538 gave Trump and Clinton similar chances. They essentially called the race too close to call.
Wasn’t 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
No. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.
Everyone was wrong in 2016.
538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere.
And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.
538 gave Trump and Clinton similar chances. They essentially called the race too close to call.