She definitely has a real chance. Biden’s biggest weaknesses were his age and his record. Harris isn’t old (especially compared to Trump), can more easily back off Biden’s least-popular positions, and it’s harder to blame her for not accomplishing as much as the guy ostensibly running the show.

Trump is also not some electoral juggernaut; he’s basically a walking gaffe/outrage machine with an endless supply of skeletons in his closet.