538 predicts a 2020 sized Harris victory, Georgia and North Carolina flip. THQ predicts a tight Harris win, mostly in the Rust Belt & maybe a NC grab? RCP predicts a tight Trump victory via Pennsylvania.
All 3 agree on Georgia going red and Michigan and Wisconsin going blue. Those states have held their colors firm for quite some time.
Nate’s model has a whole host of issues, not the least being his seeming lack of understanding of probability.
But don’t take the word of some random internet hobo for it, Nicholas Taleb has a whole paper responding to the fundamental flaws with the 538/Nate Silver kind of election forecast.
For one simple point, uncertainty in a binary prediction does not mean that week to week win probabilities swing wildly. It would instead mean the win probability converges to 0.5 for both options. Neither Silver’s model nor the new 538 model display this property (arguable the 538 model is closer), so their outputs cannot be interpreted as win probabilities.