The question is what the west can offer at this point that still allows the west to save face. The key demand for Russia is demilitarization of Ukraine and keeping it out NATO, and it would be pretty hard to dress that up as anything but a total Russian victory over the west.
There’s really not much leverage the west has over Russia at this point either. The sanctions failed, and Russia’s military is only getting stronger. Meanwhile, Europe isn’t doing so hot economically and the economy in US isn’t doing much better either. The relative damage to the west is clearly more significant than to Russia. Not to mention that the war is now a major driving factor behind dedollarization and the rise of BRICS which puts the west in a far weaker position geopolitically going forward.
The key demand for Russia is demilitarization of Ukraine and keeping it out NATO, and it would be pretty hard to dress that up as anything but a total Russian victory over the west.
To this day westerners keep painting the Winter War as a Finnish victory because the USSR didn’t annex the whole country, regardless of if they ever wanted to. Don’t underestimate the West’s ability to revise recent history by moving goalposts.
There’s really not much leverage the west has over Russia at this point either
There’s an option to force more countries into chaos or suicidal attacks, I suppose. Georgia, Armenia, stupid belt, Poland. Perhaps Moldova and Romania. Plus the fuckery in Africa and middle East. If their goal is to stretch out Russian resources, I could see it at least attempted. If the goal is to harm China, then there’s also Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, etc.
Poland and Baltics are most likely to get shoved off a cliff, but fundamental problem that NATO has right now is lack of industrial capacity. These small countries can provide men to be sacrificed, but US is the only major weapons producer in the west, and it’s simply not able to keep up right now. Obviously, US could start developing domestic industry, but that’s going to take years to do.
US is also in a political turmoil now the likes of which have never been seen. The country is very divided internally, and the tensions are rising, and economic situation is worse now than it was during the great depression. This creates a ripe environment for opportunists like Biden and Trump to take charge, and the administrations these clowns run aren’t able to solve the problems US has. Even in regards to the war there’s a lot of infighting because there’s a neocon camp that thinks this is a distraction from China. The worse things get the harder it becomes to justify keeping the war going domestically.
Russia has a huge advantage in this regard because it has a stable government that’s able to do long term planning and the industry that was inherited from USSR that can produce the weapons and ammunition needed to keep the war going.
The question is what the west can offer at this point that still allows the west to save face. The key demand for Russia is demilitarization of Ukraine and keeping it out NATO, and it would be pretty hard to dress that up as anything but a total Russian victory over the west.
There’s really not much leverage the west has over Russia at this point either. The sanctions failed, and Russia’s military is only getting stronger. Meanwhile, Europe isn’t doing so hot economically and the economy in US isn’t doing much better either. The relative damage to the west is clearly more significant than to Russia. Not to mention that the war is now a major driving factor behind dedollarization and the rise of BRICS which puts the west in a far weaker position geopolitically going forward.
To this day westerners keep painting the Winter War as a Finnish victory because the USSR didn’t annex the whole country, regardless of if they ever wanted to. Don’t underestimate the West’s ability to revise recent history by moving goalposts.
fair point
There’s an option to force more countries into chaos or suicidal attacks, I suppose. Georgia, Armenia, stupid belt, Poland. Perhaps Moldova and Romania. Plus the fuckery in Africa and middle East. If their goal is to stretch out Russian resources, I could see it at least attempted. If the goal is to harm China, then there’s also Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, etc.
Poland and Baltics are most likely to get shoved off a cliff, but fundamental problem that NATO has right now is lack of industrial capacity. These small countries can provide men to be sacrificed, but US is the only major weapons producer in the west, and it’s simply not able to keep up right now. Obviously, US could start developing domestic industry, but that’s going to take years to do.
US is also in a political turmoil now the likes of which have never been seen. The country is very divided internally, and the tensions are rising, and economic situation is worse now than it was during the great depression. This creates a ripe environment for opportunists like Biden and Trump to take charge, and the administrations these clowns run aren’t able to solve the problems US has. Even in regards to the war there’s a lot of infighting because there’s a neocon camp that thinks this is a distraction from China. The worse things get the harder it becomes to justify keeping the war going domestically.
Russia has a huge advantage in this regard because it has a stable government that’s able to do long term planning and the industry that was inherited from USSR that can produce the weapons and ammunition needed to keep the war going.