Hey there.
As the title says, don’t you feel frustrated whenever a new video comes along and it’s just a blurry pixel doing mundane things?
15 years ago I saw something extraordinary, something that I tear up by just remembering. I won’t go into details because why would I? I’m a stranger on the internet and my experience has no weight cept for me. But I know what I saw, and I truly wonder why nobody ever caught something like that with a camera.
Video after video after images come out and all that I’m left saying to myself is “that’s not it”.
I’m just frustrated that the hallucination hypothesis is the best explanation for my sighting at this point.
how do you cope with that?
And what is the chance, given a planet, to have life develop on it? 50%? 1%? 1 out of (number of planets in the universe)?
We cannot define a statistic as we have a sample of only one element.
It would be like saying “I won the lotto and there are a lot of people in the world, so there must be thousands of people that won it at the same time as me”, it doesn’t make sense. Without knowing the chances of winning (in this case, pretty low) you cannot assume that there is a good chance there are other winners.
If we had a proper sample (let’s say, 10000 planets including a handful showing life forms), then we could at least extrapolate. But we have only one planet we life, so an extrapolation would still be one. In other words, we have no proof that life is possible outside of earth, so assuming there is is nothing but a belief.
if the percentage is even .000000000000001%, then intelligent life must have developed elsewhere millions of times.
and that’s ignoring intelligent life possibly developing on stars rather than planets or in interstellar space rather than on discrete objects, it’s statistically ridiculous to think the slightly clever monkeys on this bubble are the only form of intelligent life.
there are simply too many avenues for intelligent life to arise to assume that because you personally haven’t seen it or a teacher didn’t explain to you that extraterrestrial life exists because we wrote about it in a textbook, that extraterrestrial life doesn’t exist.
there’s too much evidence and too much statistical probability of intelligent life arising to simply assume that it can’t exist.
That’s like assuming there are no fish in the sea because you can’t see beneath the surface of the water.
But you’re still making up a stat from nowhere. What if the probability is 10e-30 ? Then earth would statistically be the only one with life on it. And it could be even lower and earth would be a statistical miracle.
There is no proof that alien life doesn’t exist. There is no proof that god doesn’t exist. There is no proof that if you try to eat a candle from your eye while dancing on your head it won’t grant you immortality. You can’t prove the inexistence of something so the argument is void. That’s why I called it a belief, as opposed to science that is about what can be proved wrong.
And your comparison is inaccurate. What I’m saying is equivalent to not believing that a subspecies of humans with gills live under the sea because we never found one. Which I think is a reasonable assumption until proven wrong.
“But you’re still making up a stat from nowhere”
incorrect, I’m responding to your made-up statistics of 50% or 1%.
We know microbial life has developed on other planets, We know microbial life has evolved into intelligent life before.
your correlation of the literally uncountable locations and moments in which life can develop into intelligent life (as you understand it) with said intelligent life not having occurred and presented itself to you personally as some sort of evidence against intelligent life existing outside of the human understanding belies your misunderstanding of the statistical scale we are talking about.
“There is no proof that alien life doesn’t exist.”
that is because we have evidence that alien life exists.
“There is no proof that god doesn’t exist.”
We have much less evidence that God exists than we have of alien life existing.
“You can’t prove the inexistence of something so the argument is void.”
nobody is trying to prove a negative except for you, and I agree you’re failing in that admittedly futile argument.
“What I’m saying is equivalent to not believing that a subspecies of humans with gills live under the sea because we never found one.”
no, what you are saying is despite having found evidence of humans with gills, and you having access to evidence, you don’t believe in the evidence of humans with gills.
Your hard-fought disbelief in statistics and evidence is much less credible than the actual evidence and statistics.
Your incredulous attitude is exactly what I mean by I’m in the " disclosure has happened and nobody cares" phase.
You’re waiting for everybody else to tell you that the evidence is correct instead of accepting the evidence yourself.
My “made-up stat” was to point out that it’s absurd to try to make one, to which you replied by making one.
We don’t have proof of microbial life outside of earth, or it would be a consensus. The consensus is that it’s possible but we don’t know.
It’s not about intelligent life occurring to me, but about basing assumptions on proof, which doesn’t exist yet.
And your argument is circular. You are saying that foreign life exists because we have evidence of it, which means that statistically it has to exist ; I have yet to see such evidence and if it existed, the need for a statistical proof of existence would be none. You are already convinced of its existence and are operating within that scope, which once again is how beliefs work.
“My “made-up stat” was to point out that it’s absurd to try to make one”
Trust me, you didn’t need to come up with an example to prove the absurdity of your argument.
your argument is: if you’re standing on a beach, and you find lichen growing out of the microcosm of one grain of sand, your assumption is that that grain of sand is the only life on the beach, before taking the time to even look at any other grain of sand on the beach.
That’s about as goofy as it gets.
You’re a zealot.
You’d burn Galileo at the stake for demonstrating his “magic space glass” if you had the chance.
“I have yet to see such evidence…”
yet you’re extrapolating off of your ignorance.
again, if you haven’t even looked at any of the other grains of sand, your believies are just that.
I’m convinced based on scientific evidence, you believe in as you say, your “circular logic”:
by not looking at any evidence, by covering your eyes with your own hands, you’ve convinced yourself that no evidence of extraterrestrial life exists.
you are incorrect.
Yeah ok, if your level of argumentation is “you’re like an anti-vaxxer” (which is funny considering they are people believing that the consensus is wrong and that they know better than science, seems ironic to see it from your side), then there’s no point in trying to reply to you.
You kept on trying to alter my argument to try to ridicule it, you’re obviously not debating in good faith so there’s no point.
And also, I looked at what the “evidence” is and there’s nothing but clues saying “it’s possible”. If you think that it is enough to conclude to the existence of something, then you have no clue what scientific reasoning is.
Enjoy considering your beliefs as a scientific truth, and consider calming down on the fallacies if you want to be taken seriously.
If you’re going to make things up rather than look at any evidence, there’s definitely no point in continuing your rant.
Good faith?
you have admitted that you are unaware of existing evidence for UFOs that is freely available, but you are extrapolating from your own ignorance that there can be no evidence.
I can only respond to the level of your lack of understanding, that may be why this well seems to have run dry for you.
you’ll probably learn about the significance of evidence one day, but too late, and apologize to Galileo on your death bed.
I have admitted no such thing, I said that I couldn’t find any evidence strong enough to serve as a rational proof.
And did you really casually throw in a Galileo gambit right now? You went from looking like an angry irrational person to a full-on conspiracy theorist in such a few words.