Next week’s presidential contest comes down to one issue: China.

Even amid a historically packed global election calendar in 2024, next week’s presidential contest in Taiwan will be one of the most closely watched and significant. The political future of the island and its historically fraught relationship with China — by far the main issue for voters this year — will have consequences not just for Taiwan’s nearly 24 million people, but for global security and prosperity.

China views Taiwan as a rebellious province, rather than an independent country, and Beijing’s longstanding position is that the two should be reunified. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently described this reunification as a “historical inevitability” in his New Year’s address.

While China’s official position has been that this reunification — something Taiwanese voters overwhelmingly oppose — should be accomplished by peaceful means, it has not ruled out using force and has stepped up military and economic pressure on the island. This has alarmed governments and military leaders around the world, given the real possibility that a war over Taiwan could draw in other countries including the United States and devastate the global economy.