South Africa’s foreign minister, Naledi Pandor, is flying to The Hague to be present on Friday when the international court of justice (ICJ) delivers its highly anticipated verdict on South Africa’s request for an interim ruling in its genocide case against Israel.
The ruling, if granted, would probably take the form of an order to Israel to announce a ceasefire in Gaza and allow more UN humanitarian aid into the country.
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A judgment on the merits of the South African claim that Israel is committing genocide under the 1948 Geneva convention is many years off, but the ICJ, the UN’s highest court, has powers to issue the equivalent of an interim injunction.
I think from a global general-population perspective, if things don’t go the right way there are going to be some very angry and disillusioned people. People who are already teetering on the brink of going from abject frustration to full-on rage. For one side, nothing short of a cease-fire will do (as a bare minimum); for the other side, anything imposed on them is a crime against humanity.
I feel like UN/ICJ know this, so they’ll hedge their bets and swing for the middle. No matter which way it goes, some chunk of the general population is going to be let-down. Again.