Israel would collapse or have no ability to prosecute their war against the Palestinians?
Not collapse, but they wouldn’t be able to continue bombing Gaza to the ground. I can’t find the source (Edit: But their reserves are too limited). They’d also need to actually think of their neighbors’ responses to their actions (remember how Sisi threatened to go to war over Gaza until Blinken had a “talk” with him), but let’s set that aside because it’s not something Biden can control single-handedly.
Biden has been bypassing Congress to send them weapons, pressing Congress for Israeli aid and on top of all that defending them at the UN (preventing measures such as UN-led sanctions from taking place). These are things Biden could stop doing right now that would materially impact Israel’s campaign in Gaza, and the fact that he’s not doing that is causing him to hemorrhage voters.
So, I don’t disagree that he’s doing those things. I’d also rather he stop those things, and push in the other direction, in a vacuum. It is not obvious to me that sending them weapons right now actually has much impact on their ability to conduct their genocide, and I suspect that what he is doing here, which again, I’d prefer he not, is in service to…
Reciprocity is a strong drive in humans. Giving someone something, even something they don’t need, puts them in a space to agree to your requests, more so than if you flatly made them. It may be that those efforts, dislikable as they are from the perspective of an individual voter such as you or I, may be part of the realpolitik of getting Israel to stand the fuck down and stop killing people what the hell is wrong with you all seriously please please please stop fucking killing people. Ahem. He’s been ramping up the pushback publically, and I think that pushback is lagging the private pushback, with the intent to have a stronger bargaining position. I will admit that I have insufficient data to have a strong belief in this area, and I do in fact rate that a weak belief, but it’s consistent with the evidence I have.
This universe sucks and we need to make it better. Throwing up our hands and letting the guy who will send US troops to shove Gazans into the ocean and hold them underwater is the opposite of making it better. The majority of probability mass in november rests on a Biden-Trump competition. Of those options, I prefer Biden. Not because he’s perfect, but because I can see that in a competition between bad and worse, worse is worse. Shit sucks. Opting not to vote doesn’t opt you out of that world.
Not collapse, but they wouldn’t be able to continue bombing Gaza to the ground. I can’t find the source (Edit: But their reserves are too limited). They’d also need to actually think of their neighbors’ responses to their actions (remember how Sisi threatened to go to war over Gaza until Blinken had a “talk” with him), but let’s set that aside because it’s not something Biden can control single-handedly.
Biden has been bypassing Congress to send them weapons, pressing Congress for Israeli aid and on top of all that defending them at the UN (preventing measures such as UN-led sanctions from taking place). These are things Biden could stop doing right now that would materially impact Israel’s campaign in Gaza, and the fact that he’s not doing that is causing him to hemorrhage voters.
So, I don’t disagree that he’s doing those things. I’d also rather he stop those things, and push in the other direction, in a vacuum. It is not obvious to me that sending them weapons right now actually has much impact on their ability to conduct their genocide, and I suspect that what he is doing here, which again, I’d prefer he not, is in service to…
Reciprocity is a strong drive in humans. Giving someone something, even something they don’t need, puts them in a space to agree to your requests, more so than if you flatly made them. It may be that those efforts, dislikable as they are from the perspective of an individual voter such as you or I, may be part of the realpolitik of getting Israel to stand the fuck down and stop killing people what the hell is wrong with you all seriously please please please stop fucking killing people. Ahem. He’s been ramping up the pushback publically, and I think that pushback is lagging the private pushback, with the intent to have a stronger bargaining position. I will admit that I have insufficient data to have a strong belief in this area, and I do in fact rate that a weak belief, but it’s consistent with the evidence I have.
This universe sucks and we need to make it better. Throwing up our hands and letting the guy who will send US troops to shove Gazans into the ocean and hold them underwater is the opposite of making it better. The majority of probability mass in november rests on a Biden-Trump competition. Of those options, I prefer Biden. Not because he’s perfect, but because I can see that in a competition between bad and worse, worse is worse. Shit sucks. Opting not to vote doesn’t opt you out of that world.