Cunigulus [they/them]

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: April 27th, 2022

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  • You can do Windows, sometimes you’ve gotta do Windows, but I highly recommend learning Linux. Just get a dual boot or a different drive running linux and set up something that works for what you need. If you’re just doing general office work and some gaming Linux will do what you need. If you want to play a few specific games that don’t work or need Adobe or Solidworks for work you’ll need windows. It can be virtualized though!






  • Now that the original line in the Southwest part of Donetsk has fallen, the Russians have a straight shot right to the Zaporizhia Oblast border, all flat fields with 0 obstacles until Ivanivka, basically everything south of that green line is super vulnerable, putting the Russians in position to threaten to roll up the lines either to the West or the North. Logistics for a major offensive might be tough due to limited good roads, but we might be looking at the return of big arrows soon and maybe a precipitous collapse of Ukrainian lines, especially if the Russians are actually already in Kostyantynopil. We’ll see if they’re prepared to exploit their successes further. It’s hard to be optimistic watching this war, but this is the kind of action that might bring it to a more rapid close.




  • Meanwhile China has reached the cutting edge of microprocessor fabrication science and is planning a superfab utilizing a particle accelerator to try to get down to 2nm. Was this maybe coming eventually anyway? Sure, but I think these sanctions have made the Chinese double-down. They might have temporarily lost some market share by not being able to scale as fast at the cutting edge for the last few years, but these sanctions forced them to move up the supply chain to the kind of fabrication technology ASML had been supplying before sanctions and now they will outcompete the western monopolists. They wanted a quick fix to keep the Chinese behind in semiconductors for another decade, but no one thought to ask, “Well what happens after that? How will the Chinese respond?”






  • Honestly this debate probably slightly hurts Kamala, just by virtue of people having to watch her more. She didn’t do a great job of rebutting Trump. Her response to him just lying his ass off the whole time just wasn’t sharp enough, and there was so little substance in her responses - it’s just not going to move the needle for anyone. My lib boyfriend just gave up watching it after 30 minutes or so and was laughing at Trump half the time. It just made me depressed and less interested in giving a fuck about this election.




  • These things go slowly, slowly then all at once. There’s been a lot more movement on the front these last few months, and the Ukrainian army is pretty depleted. At some point Russia is going to wind up for a big kick at an open door and we’ll see things starting to look more like Afghanistan in 2021 or the final months of the Third Reich. A negotiated peace is the only thing that can prevent this kind of outcome, and Ukraine might be smart enough to go in for it before things really start to deteriorate. Even so it’s hard to imagine the Russians crossing back over the Dnieper and even harder imagining them taking a defended Odessa. If they get Odessa it will be in a peace treaty, not by military force.



  • The “Bring Back Domestic Manufacturing, isolationism” stuff was very much not part of early 2000’s conservative republican politics. They were hyper-liberals on economics in a way that’s not credible today and this was peak war on terror. His brand of politics is much closer to Trumpism than anything from the Bush era, and I’d argue its likely to be much more appealing to a broad base of people. This is pointing the way forward for the Republicans much more than the Pence pick was. Picking up the smart parts of Trump’s populism without the personal baggage. The problem is it’s completely superficial because these politicians are still beholden to the same elite donor base that has made everything the way it is. If they end up in power for any length of time they’ll become deeply unpopular just like the third-way.