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Cake day: July 4th, 2023

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  • I understand and ultimately it’s impossible to quantify and compare these things. I’m not trying to defend his AIDs policies. I just grew up as an illegal and I understand what it’s like living in fear.

    You see a police officer and you immediately get a flight or fight response. You need to find roundabout ways to get jobs, finance a car, or rent apartments. You never know if ICE will just show up to your house one day. Or if you pick up a family member from the airport and they ask for your papers (my old boss got deported that way. His girlfriend’s niece came to stay a week. He went to pick her up. CBP was waiting with her to get documents from whoever came to pick her up)

    You have to pay taxes but you don’t get to apply for things everyone else does. You wanna go to community College? Tough shit, you don’t qualify for instate tuition so you’re paying 3x the normal price. Even if you’ve lived there for 15 years and did your entire elementary / high school in the state. You’re American in all ways except one- documents

    Etc etc

    There are over 10 million, I think around 13 million people living just like that.

    And Trump is awful. But Biden pretended like he would do something, he promised immigration reform. Promised to halt construction of the wall. Instead he expands construction and the next day does a photoshoot at the border with CBP. Month or two ago he actually used the term “illegals”

    Which in my opinion isn’t a big deal but for a lot of people showed how far right he has shifted

    That’s why I brought up Reagan. He gave millions of illegals amnesty and essentially removed a constant anxiety and lifted up a people that were all hiding in the shadows.

    No president has done anything like that. Obama is probably second place because of DACA. I would vote for him again in a heartbeat.

    So yeah I understand Reagan did the AIDs thing not trying to diminish it although we are essentially picking between people who have all done awful things. Biden went and publicly bent the knee to Israel at the start of their invasion. Trump I don’t think I even need to elaborate on






  • I would want more research before mandating it as if it were lifesaving operations. But yeah, I agree in a general sense.

    I think a lot of people that disagree would change their minds if they had a child with gender dysphoria. A lot of conservatives believe the parents are manipulating the child or seeing things that aren’t there.

    But I’ve seen it before. I met a little boy maybe 8 or 9 years old in a very religious conservative household some years back. It was the neighbor of a family friend. Nobody manipulated him into saying stuff like “I’m a girl in a boy’s body”. Or trying to sneak makeup or dresses. They tried to pray it out of him. But it was persistent, year after year he would day these things.

    I think the same thing with a lot of anti-gay people having a gay son or whatever. Once you meet someone like that it sort of becomes real and makes you realize “oh wow maybe I’m wrong”

    I changed my mind after meeting that family and seeing the boy. I used to think differently on this.


  • Suicide rates for trans is almost 50%

    I’m assuming a couple of things here in my logic

    A) transitioning is an effective treatment for gender dysphoria and significantly lowers the suicide rate for these people

    B) there is a medically accurate way to diagnosis gender dysphoria

    So you say “one is death if not treated but the other is a life choice”

    The trans thing is life or death too. If you have a child and they are displaying these types of behaviors (wanting to play with dolls as a boy, saying they are a girl, trying to wear dresses, etc) then you have a kid that is very very likely to kill themselves and have other mental health problems

    Getting medical treatment ASAP is the logical thing to do

    I know it’s still relatively new and can potentially be harmful to the child if not diagnosed properly. I also understand there are some crazy parents out there who project their BS onto their kids.

    But I think as a parent I would want the best for my kid so I would do whatever it takes to make sure they have the best quality of life and just chance at life in general.

    If they are going to transition, they will pass much better if they do it pre-puberty. By the time they’re in high school they would probably look imperceptibly like the opposite sex.

    I would only want it done after rigorous tests by medical professional that absolutely rules out weirdo parents


  • If a kid has a heart condition and they have to have a risky surgery, the doctors ask the parents. Because the child is not old enough to understand the implications of these things.

    I see gender dysphoria as a similar thing. The suicide rate is very high for these individuals so some form of treatment is essential if you care about your child. It’s the same as if they had a heart issue with like a 40% risk of dying. It’s life or death.

    The transitioning process works best if it happens before puberty. When a child goes through puberty, the sexual hormones start pumping and that permanently changes many parts of the body. Literally the shape and size of bones will change.

    If you catch gender dysphoria before puberty, the end result of the transition will be much more effective than doing it at 18 or 20. By that point there’s no going back from puberty.

    So essentially - the child isn’t making a decision. The parents are making an informed medical decision based on a diagnosis by a medical professional.

    I really don’t see this as any different than any other medical issue. The difference is this is unusual and many people think emotionally.


  • We’re not talking hobbyists. We’re talking top level athletes. Men aren’t just stronger. There are dozens if not hundreds of items they outperform women on.

    The sports where women can actually compete with men are rare. For example marksmanship or long-distance marathon. Virtually every sport men have distinct and significant advantages.

    Men have larger hearts, more lung volume per body mass, more red blood cells, more clotting factors which means they recover quicker and have a higher pain tolerance.

    Testosterone allows for more rapid muscle gain as well as better recovery. So two people training the same exercises an identical amount of time, the man would have gained significantly more muscle mass and strength.

    Men have higher blood pressure, which means they feel fatigue less than women. Men don’t lose iron to menstruation, which means there’s more iron for oxygen circulation in the blood.

    These items basically make it so men are much better at almost all sports.

    For example soccer. The US Women’s national team lost to a team of high school age boys.

    Men can kick harder, sprint faster, run longer, train longer & they gain more from training & they recover faster from training so they can do it more, they feel less pain so they can stay at max exertion longer, they can convert oxygen into energy faster so they can sustain all of this more than women,

    Etc

    There’s a reason we have women’s leagues. If we didn’t have it, women wouldn’t get to compete at a high level.

    At a lower level, like hobbyist or local leagues the story may be different. There’s more variance among the general population than amongst top athletes.

    Serena Williams, #1 woman tennis player, can’t hold a candle to the 203rd best man. Look up her interview about it. She’s under no illusions about this


  • Women make up roughly 15% of USCF members yet they only make up roughly 1.5% of grandmasters.

    That means they are underrepresented by about an order of magnitude. Women on average are about 200 ELO lower than men.  It’s a very large difference and there has been research done to figure out why.

    There are no real conclusive findings (as with much of this type of sociological research) but we have evidence for various different reasons. One, women are not encouraged to play chess at the same level that men are. Similar reason that more men go into Computer Science or Physics. It’s not a built in biological difference, but a cultural one.

    Another one is that women are younger by 11 years on average, so their ratings haven’t peaked yet. So we should see this gap close in the coming decades. There are also various other inequities between men and women (like for example stereotype threat).

    So that explains at least some of the gap. What I’m trying to say is that beyond these factors, there is also a biological difference that results in men being overrepresented in the top chess players. Notice I’m not saying average chess players, but specifically the best in the world (the grandmasters).

    Why?

    Well, there’s evidence for something called the "greater male variability hypothesis”. Think of every person sitting somewhere on a normal distribution. Pick a trait like aggressiveness or competitiveness.

    There are the extremes on both sides of the bell curve. On the left, super passive and on the right super aggressive. Most people clump at the mean, in the center of the bell curve.

    There’s evidence that more women cluster around the mean relative to men. Men are overrepresented at the extremes of the bell curve, even though the average is the same as women. Only by a little bit, but it’s statistically significant. That means that if you took a sample of all the super-aggressive and super-passive people, the majority would be men.

    When you look at top chess players, they are more likely to have extreme attributes (being ultra-competitive for example helps you get better at chess).

    This same effect is also theorized to be why we see that vast majority of prisoners are male. Vast majority of homeless, etc. Because extreme attributes tend to either be really good or really bad.

    So that’s one biological difference. The other is the visospatial intelligence. Men tend to score better on visospatial tests when compared to women. This effect is already visible by 2 or 3 months of age, so it’s unlikely to be some sort of cultural effect.

    Visiospatial cognitive ability is positively correlated with chess ability. Another biological difference between men and women that likely has some non-zero effect on chess ability.

    So why are women underrepresented in grandmasters when compared to males? There is evidence for both

    a) external social factors

    and

    b) innate biological factors

    Nobody knows what % of the difference is due to a) or b). We just know there is some non-zero effect for both.

    I encourage you to fact check every claim I’ve made. Don’t just look for one  research paper that confirms your argument. Each claim I’ve made I’ve seen multiple studies on. There are studies that will say the opposite, but look at it in aggregate. Look at metaanalysis studies.


  • It’s a question of

    How much effort (man hours which ultimately translates to $$$) versus how much revenue lost (people not buying because of Firefox bugs)

    In my experience this depends on your specific application. Sometimes there are weird bugs or behavior where you have to really hunt down what’s going on. Other times it’s as simple as changing a few css lines or something.


  • I view India as a rising power that has the potential to rival China and the USA. I think the culture is backwards in many ways and advanced in others. I don’t like your current administration, but I do think India overall has interesting politics. I mean, you guys have an active Maoist insurgency. Pretty wild for the 21st century.

    I tend to get along well with Indians I meet in the states. I appreciate India long history and cultural impact (Buddha came from India for example). There were democracies in India before Athens was a thing.

    All in all India’s a rising power with a lot of potential. Unfortunately I don’t think they will reach China-status anytime soon because they don’t exercise as much central control as China does.

    In some ways this is good, Cultural Revolution wasn’t exactly a great experience for a lot of people. But in other ways it means the Indian government doesn’t have the power to reshape India in a way where it can successfully rival the European powers.




  • Men and women are the same intelligence on average. There are more men at the extremes of the distribution curve for certain attributes, though. And when you are talking about chess players, you are taking a sample of the ends of the distribution curve.

    There’s also evidence that chess ability and visiospatial cognitive ability are positively correlated with chess ability. Men tend to perform better than woman on average. (Stuff like rotating imaginary 3d shapes for example)

    This may be partially why we only see 42 out of 2500 worldwide grandmasters being women. Men may only perform 2.5~4% better, but when you’re talking about the extremes (best chess players in world) that small % means a lot.

    Tldr: It’s not because they aren’t on equal intelligence. Women for example score better on verbal cognition tests.

    And on average men and women have the same IQ


  • This is why my personal opinion is we should allow trans athletes if they didn’t go through male puberty. If they did, sorry you’re out. If they didn’t, it’s OK.

    And you’re right not all mtf athletes are going to end up at the top echelon but given enough time statistically speaking they will be drastically overrepresented.

    Edit: also the data is quite clear trans women are stronger, have more lung capacity, etc even 5+ years into hormone therapy. Iirc I even saw 10+ years on a paper once

    But the ones that went through male puberty. I think this is why we should try and find gender dysphoria earlier and treat b4 puberty. It’s much more effective the younger you start

    Of course issue is you don’t want to be too broad with diagnosis because of false positives and the conservatives going nuts. So it’s a difficult thing to do. Maybe we will identify what causes gender dysphoria some day and that will help