Thanks, I appreciate it! It took a stupidly long time. :V
On some level, it’s probably not that important that people understand all this stuff, but I think the most dangerous thing is people believing that their data will be protected if Threads gets defederated. Any other confusion is basically harmless, but that’s the one thing where people have a false sense of security, because Meta has exactly the same access to your data whether or not they get defederated.
No, I don’t want to? Weird take.
There are literally, not exaggerating, over one billion Instagram accounts in existence. It’s self-evidently not the case that they have just silently registered everybody a Threads account and are counting those numbers.
Meta is categorically evil, but the pretty obvious gain from federation is the same as it is federating with anything else: content. Threads has people posting on it, some of those people say interesting things … the end.
That’s not to say that outweighs the downsides, like some of that content will also undoubtedly be hateful bigoted trash, and the moderation load of suddenly dealing with an order of magnitude more posts will be a huge strain on fediverse admins who choose to federate, but there’s undeniably something to gain.
Definitely. Meta is studiously only sharing the number of accounts registered. We have no idea how many of those are active. If we go with the old 1-9-90 rule, only about 10 million of those 100 million will become active users. Although, the rule obviously isn’t a universal constant. On the fediverse, for example, it’s closer to ⅓ of registered users that are active.
You already got a solution to this, but an alternative mechanism for people who use uBlock Origin is to add this filter to your custom list:
kbin.social##^style
That assumes you’re on kbin.social, obviously substitute in your home kbin instance.
This is untrue. Threads accounts are reserved for the matching Instagram user, but those users have to actually choose for that account to be opened. If all Instagram accounts were auto-converted to Threads accounts there’d be over 1 billion Threads accounts. The 100 million Threads users are all people who have specifically opted to have a Threads account.
In fairness, I think we might already be the rest who don’t matter. Threads has just passed 100 million users in like three days. The entire fediverse, in about ten years (it’s tough to pin down an exact start date because “When did it become the fediverse?”), has accrued around 12 million users, of which less than 4 million are active. There’s any number of things Meta might want, but I don’t think greater access to 4 million geeks is at the top of their list.
I do think the embrace, extend, extinguish concerns have some merit. Meta isn’t threatened by the fediverse now, but maybe they do want to kill it before it becomes a problem. In the short term, though, we’re not overtaking Threads. Personally, I think another plausible theory is that Threads is using ActivityPub to demonstrate that they’re not running a monopoly or gatekeeping control of social media (which the EU’s new Digital Markets Act now regulates) by pointing to the fediverse–which will soon also include direct competitors Tumblr–and saying “See, we’re all on equal footing! We don’t control social media! Look over there at those 4 million geeks and whatever number of Tumblr users.”
It comes from Fortune, they can’t conceive of something that’s not a business.
Hard to tell. It’s been in decline since January though, so some of it is just Twitter being a place people want to be less and less.
Here’s the graph, as posted by CloudFlare CEO Matthew Prince:
If nobody has ever subscribed to a foreign instance’s community/magazine before, it won’t show up on your home instance. Currently, the best way to pull it into your local instance is to copy its web address on the other site into your local search.
e.g. If you wanted to pull in kbin.social’s AskKbin from lemmy.world you’d find its URL, https://kbin.social/m/AskKbin, and paste that address into your home instance’s search box. As long as somebody has done this once, AskKbin will now show up in regular community lists, searches, etc.
There’s also another take that Threads becoming federated could be used by Meta as a defense against accusations of monopoly (if it becomes the new Twitter, they’ll be running all three of the three largest social media platforms) and protecting it from falling afoul of the EU’s new Digital Markets Act, which designates “gatekeeper” companies that control large platforms, placing additional legal requirements on them which force them to demonstrate that they are competing fairly and openly.
Meta could either hope that by federating, they can claim they’re not in “control” of the platform and so not a gatekeeper at all, or failing that, that by using an open protocol that’s compatible with other similar services, that they’re competing fairly. At best, this is using the fediverse as a smokescreen: Threads is only a few days into existence and is already at least five times the size of the entire fediverse put together, but in this theory it’s to their benefit to maintain just enough compatibility to avoid getting in trouble with the regulators.
Get us a photo of the popsicle stick skyscraper before it burns down.
Lemmy communities are “groups” in ActivityPub parlance, and groups do exist on the microblogging platforms. Using Mastodon as an example for now, a Masto user could find the group equivalent to a Lemmy community and make a post and/or comment there and it would show up on lemmy.world and anybody else who federates with that Masto instance. In reality, the groups experience is kind of terrible and a poor interface to these thread-style communities, and you lose all kinds of features like the recency/score sorting algorithm, the ability to downvote things, etc.
It would take a true masochist to post to lemmy.world from Mastodon, which is why you almost never see it. I’ve seen one Mastodon user in my time on the threadiverse so far. Most people who are already on the microblogging side of the fediverse have just chosen to register a separate account on a threadiverse instance so they can have an actual usable interface rather than stuffing a link aggregator through a blog-shaped hole.
Groups don’t even exist on Threads currently. Maybe they will by the time they implement ActivityPub, but they may not consider that to be a core goal as a microblogging, Twitter-style platform which has no obvious use for them. This would currently make Threads an even worse interface to the threadiverse (kind of ironic) than Mastodon, which I can’t stress enough is already awful. You would just have to search for individual posts by browsing somewhere like lemmy.world directly, copying and pasting the URLs into the Threads app or web site to populate the conversation in their interface in order to reply to the posts and comments there.
In short, using Lemmy via Threads is probably going to be such a nightmare that only turbo-nerds will try to do it, and turbo-nerds are more likely to realize “This is awful and I should just go join Lemmy or kbin or something,” than persist with that hassle long-term. Now, kbin users have more justification to be concerned about how Threads will impact their communities, because kbin supports microblogging directly–in corporate terms, it’s like if Reddit and Twitter combined into one site that you could tab between on the fly. This means kbin users will be more likely to see Threads content and vice versa.
The other problem here is that I don’t think a lot of people actually know how defederation works. There’s lots of takes like “I don’t want Meta to get my data, so we have to defederate.” But defederating stops you from receiving their content, not the other way around. Once Threads actually is federating, defederating it will stop people seeing posts from Threads users. That has its own merits, but it doesn’t protect your data in any way. If you don’t want corporate entities to access your online posts, either send them via some private end-to-end encrypted system where only you and the direct recipients can see them, or don’t post them online at all. The Internet is on the Internet.
Now, a bit more of an explanation on what defederation is: while the decentralized nature complicates things (since different servers will have different defederation lists), defederation is closer to a Reddit shadow-ban than whatever it is people are imagining. If literally everybody defederated Meta/Threads, they would still see our content, but from their (Threads users’) perspective, it would just seem like we’re all giving them the silent treatment, because we never respond to their posts or comments.
Yeah, they can vote and reply and all of that and others who remain federated will see their interactions, but you or any other server who defederates them won’t.
For the most part, Threads content just wouldn’t appear on Lemmy at all. It’s like how you can’t see Mastodon users’ timelines on Lemmy. e.g. Jeri Ryan from Star Trek is on
mastodon.world, but you can’t read her blog from Lemmy because it just doesn’t display microblog content, only stuff that’s sorted into groups (communities).The one exception is that Jeri Ryan can track down the equivalent group on her Mastodon instance and “microblog” directly into the group. Mastodon has some hacky tweaks to do things like reading the first sentence as a heading, the second line as a URL, and the third line as the post body, so if you’re especially dedicated you can post to Lemmy from Mastodon. If Threads cares enough, they could add similar functionality to Threads to make it technically possible to post to Lemmy as long as you try hard enough, but just regular people’s blog posts on Threads won’t display on Lemmy at all.