it will take a long time before fusion reactors spread, given how capital and technology intensive they are.
Part of that is the research cost and yes, it could be that when we finally get one made it turns out that the price to have something decent is very high.
But it could also be that when we finally have one or a few fusion reactors selling energy that new research done on them and things like AIs that can run new reactors by being trained on existing reactors data could drive efficiency up so much that by the tenth or twentieth reactor low cost reactors could already have been developed that might have a cost per construction close to or even less than equivalent power with other means as well. Even if they weren’t as efficient as the best ones it might still make power a lot cheaper making then worth it in the short to medium term.
The issue with fusion reactors is that they require many very high tech materials and components. As solar energy has shown us, the capitalist countries are incapable of developing new energy sources to anywhere near the same extent as socialist ones can, with most of the world’s solar energy tech being developed and manufactured in China. China will play a similar role for commercial fusion (if it ever becomes viable), and any future fusion industry will almost certainly have its supply chains centered on China.
Unfrotunately, the solar industry has also shown us that the capitalist bloc reacts poorly to the development of new energy sources. It has already begun its trade wars and ramped up geopolitical tensions surrounding Chinese green tech, accusing it of being “too cheap”. The capitalist bloc has too much investment in fossil fuels (with the petrodollar being the very foundation of the capitalist bloc’s world dominance) to let an “unlimited energy source” propagate around the world. Especially not if this source was controlled by a socialist country.
In my opinion, only the creation of a world socialist federation (not literally every country in the world, but a significant number) could create the political conditions for fusion power to become humanity’s main energy source. It would be necessary not only to get rid of political opposition from the capitalist bloc, but also to provide generous terms on which the third world could acquire fusion energy without having to undergo carbon intensive development first.
The capitalist bloc has too much investment in fossil fuels (with the petrodollar being the very foundation of the capitalist bloc’s world dominance) to let an “unlimited energy source” propagate around the world. Especially not if this source was controlled by a socialist country.
As I think about this such a development could be a big reason for the US to use nuclear weapons against China, so I do hope China builds something like laser defenses to take advantage of the new power source.
In my opinion, only the creation of a world socialist federation (not literally every country in the world, but a significant number) could create the political conditions for fusion power to become humanity’s main energy source. It would be necessary not only to get rid of political opposition from the capitalist bloc, but also to provide generous terms on which the third world could acquire fusion energy without having to undergo carbon intensive development first.
This could go hand in hand with cheap fusion reactors though, because if the reactors become very cheap fast and China can mass produce not dozens per decade but thousands per year this completely changes the game in a way that no one would really care for oil (other than the US and a few countries reliant on oil sales) in a year.
Part of that is the research cost and yes, it could be that when we finally get one made it turns out that the price to have something decent is very high.
But it could also be that when we finally have one or a few fusion reactors selling energy that new research done on them and things like AIs that can run new reactors by being trained on existing reactors data could drive efficiency up so much that by the tenth or twentieth reactor low cost reactors could already have been developed that might have a cost per construction close to or even less than equivalent power with other means as well. Even if they weren’t as efficient as the best ones it might still make power a lot cheaper making then worth it in the short to medium term.
The issue with fusion reactors is that they require many very high tech materials and components. As solar energy has shown us, the capitalist countries are incapable of developing new energy sources to anywhere near the same extent as socialist ones can, with most of the world’s solar energy tech being developed and manufactured in China. China will play a similar role for commercial fusion (if it ever becomes viable), and any future fusion industry will almost certainly have its supply chains centered on China.
Unfrotunately, the solar industry has also shown us that the capitalist bloc reacts poorly to the development of new energy sources. It has already begun its trade wars and ramped up geopolitical tensions surrounding Chinese green tech, accusing it of being “too cheap”. The capitalist bloc has too much investment in fossil fuels (with the petrodollar being the very foundation of the capitalist bloc’s world dominance) to let an “unlimited energy source” propagate around the world. Especially not if this source was controlled by a socialist country.
In my opinion, only the creation of a world socialist federation (not literally every country in the world, but a significant number) could create the political conditions for fusion power to become humanity’s main energy source. It would be necessary not only to get rid of political opposition from the capitalist bloc, but also to provide generous terms on which the third world could acquire fusion energy without having to undergo carbon intensive development first.
As I think about this such a development could be a big reason for the US to use nuclear weapons against China, so I do hope China builds something like laser defenses to take advantage of the new power source.
This could go hand in hand with cheap fusion reactors though, because if the reactors become very cheap fast and China can mass produce not dozens per decade but thousands per year this completely changes the game in a way that no one would really care for oil (other than the US and a few countries reliant on oil sales) in a year.