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Here’s the requisite Manley analysis of the GEM 63XL SRB anomaly on today’s Vulcan certification flight.
Given that Vulcan has only two BE-4s, I don’t expect they would have much capability for engine-out unless it occurred very shortly before scheduled MECO. As for SRB-out capability, that feels like it would depend on the required orbit, SRB configuration, and the exact nature of the failure. They’ve now demonstrated a certain level of SRB-out capability for the VC2S configuration, but I think a certain amount of luck was involved, in that the rest of the rocket seemingly sustained minimal damage. For the 4- and 6-SRB variants, I think the chances of cascading failures would be higher.
I wonder how much “engine out” capacity they would have on a normal flight. This is a pretty big architectural difference vs Falcon and Starship.
Given that Vulcan has only two BE-4s, I don’t expect they would have much capability for engine-out unless it occurred very shortly before scheduled MECO. As for SRB-out capability, that feels like it would depend on the required orbit, SRB configuration, and the exact nature of the failure. They’ve now demonstrated a certain level of SRB-out capability for the VC2S configuration, but I think a certain amount of luck was involved, in that the rest of the rocket seemingly sustained minimal damage. For the 4- and 6-SRB variants, I think the chances of cascading failures would be higher.