back in my map era, we’re ukrainemaxxing right now


Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I’m convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it’s hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won’t be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren’t talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we’ve been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it’s hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.net
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    2 hours ago

    Britain calling for sanctions on Sudan at the UN Security Council

    https://www.africanews.com/2024/11/18/britain-calls-for-un-action-on-sudan-boosts-humanitarian-aid/

    The UK will seek UN Security Council support on Monday, November 18 to demand an end to Sudan’s conflict and ensure humanitarian aid delivery, the foreign ministry has announced.

    As council president, Foreign Secretary David Lammy will lead a vote on a UK-Sierra Leone resolution urging civilian protection in Sudan. “The UK will never let Sudan be forgotten,” Lammy is set to say, while pledging to double UK aid for Sudan to £226 million ($285 million).

    The power struggle between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces, ongoing since April 2023, has caused thousands of deaths and the world’s largest displacement crisis.

    Lammy will also condemn Israel’s restrictions on Gaza aid, call for a ceasefire, and demand the release of hostages. On Ukraine, he will reaffirm Britain’s unwavering support against Russia’s invasion.

  • carpoftruth [any, any]@hexbear.netM
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    3 hours ago

    I posted this in the dying hours of the last thread and I think it is funny enough to repost

    What a contrast here

    A few days ago a new Chinese built port was inaugurated by xi

    In an opinion article in the El Peruano state newspaper, Xi said the Chancay project would generate $4.5 billion in annual revenues, create more than 8,000 direct jobs and reduce the logistics costs of the Peru-China route by 20%.

    China’s main motivation for developing the megaport, according to Ocharan, was access to neighboring Brazil, where a new railway line is planned to carry Brazilian exports such as soybeans and iron ore to the port.

    The rail project is estimated to cost $3.5 billion, according to Mario de las Casas, corporate affairs manager at Cosco Shipping Chancay Peru.

    And then this, Blinken announcing that the US is contributing to a new rail line in lima

    Which is actually caltrain selling lima some 40 year old diesel train parts for $6m

    Definitely a deal worthy of rocking in the free world

    • Hexboare [they/them]@hexbear.net
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      1 hour ago

      “Our former Caltrain passenger cars and locomotives will enable the start of new commuter rail service in greater Lima, cleaner air for commuters and community members and the access to opportunity that great public transportation provides,” Caltrain Executive Director Michelle Bouchard said in a statement.

      Cleaner air than what? They’re diesel and Lima already has electric trains

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    4 hours ago

    https://xcancel.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1858019192370507904

    Wow, looks like Xi was extremely straightforward during his meeting with Biden, probably the most he’s ever officially been in a meeting with a US president.

    According to the Chinese readout (https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2024_11_17_755645.shtml) here’s what he told Biden were the 7 “lessons of the past 4 years that need to be remembered”:

    1. "There must be correct strategic understanding. The ‘Thucydides Trap’ is not historical destiny, a ‘new Cold War’ cannot and should not be fought, containment of China is unwise, undesirable, and will not succeed."
    1. "Words must be trustworthy and actions must be fruitful. A person cannot stand without credibility. China always follows through on its words, but if the U.S. side always says one thing and does another, it is very detrimental to America’s image and damages mutual trust."
    1. "Treat each other as equals. In exchanges between two major countries like China and the United States, neither side can reshape the other according to their own wishes, nor can they suppress the other based on so-called ‘position of strength,’ let alone deprive the other of legitimate development rights to maintain their own leading position."
    1. “Red lines and bottom lines cannot be challenged. As two major countries, China and the United States inevitably have some contradictions and differences, but they cannot harm each other’s core interests, let alone engage in conflict and confrontation. The One China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués are the political foundation of bilateral relations and must be strictly observed. Taiwan issue, democracy and human rights, development path, and development rights are China’s four red lines, which cannot be challenged. These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-US relations.”
    1. “There should be more dialogue and cooperation. Under current circumstances, the common interests between China and the United States have not decreased but increased. Whether in areas of economy and trade, agriculture, drug control, law enforcement, public health, or in facing global challenges such as climate change and artificial intelligence, as well as international hotspot issues, China-US cooperation is needed. Both sides should extend the list of cooperation, make the cooperation cake bigger, and achieve win-win cooperation.”
    1. “Respond to people’s expectations. The development of China-US relations should always focus on the wellbeing of both peoples and gather the strength of both peoples. Both sides should build bridges for personnel exchanges and cultural communication, and also remove interference and obstacles, not artificially create a ‘chilling effect.’”
    1. “Demonstrate great power responsibility. China and the United States should always consider the future and destiny of humanity, take responsibility for world peace, provide public goods for the world, and play a positive role in world unity, including engaging in positive interaction, avoiding mutual consumption, and not coercing other countries to take sides.”

    Funnily, all this is summarized in the official US readout (https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-3/) with this short sentence: “The two leaders reviewed the bilateral relationship over the past four years”. Talk about an understatement 😅. The language compared to the readout of the last Xi-Biden meeting in San Francisco one year ago is noticeably more forthright, especially on the U.S.'s lack of trustworthiness (“if the U.S. side always says one thing and does another…”). Looks like he’s getting very frustrated with U.S. duplicity… The 4 red lines he enumerates are also new (not new individually as they’ve each been mentioned before, but packaging them together as “four red lines” and explicitly labeling them as such in a president-level diplomatic readout is new)

    With the red lines on “Democracy and human rights” and “Development path/system”, it looks like China is effectively telling the U.S. it will not humor them anymore in discussions about its internal system and so-called “human rights”, and that it will consider any U.S. initiative aimed at interfering with China’s internal affairs or otherwise shape China as hostile actions on the same level as Taiwan. This is also clear with Xi telling Biden that “neither side can reshape the other according to their own wishes”.

    On development rights Xi states that “the Chinese people’s right to development cannot be deprived or ignored” and criticizes how “while all countries have national security needs, the concept shouldn’t be overgeneralized or used as an excuse for malicious restrictions and suppression”. He also said that “great power competition should not be the theme of the era; unity and cooperation are needed to overcome difficulties together. 'Decoupling and breaking chains” is not the solution; mutually beneficial cooperation is the path to common development. ‘Small yards with high fences’ is not befitting of great powers."

    In other words, he’s telling Biden that he believes the U.S. is attempting to curtail China’s development in the guise of national security, but that this is “an excuse for malicious restrictions and suppression” and a red line as China has a fundamental right to develop as any other country. This is all, of course, also signaling to the upcoming Trump administration. The fact these are “red lines” means they’re non-negotiable regardless of who leads the US: he’s telling Trump too that attempts to “reshape” China or restrict its development will be viewed as hostile actions. And the emphasis on US “saying one thing and doing another” also puts the future administration on notice that China will judge the US by its actions rather than its diplomatic statements.

    Conclusion: by framing these positions as “lessons learned” from the past four years, Xi is effectively closing the book on one approach to US-China relations - which he’s obviously very critical about - and very clearly signaling to Trump a change is badly needed, particularly around the “4 red lines” and matching words with actions. The language is very confident, telling the U.S. they need to “treat each other as equals” and that they have no “position of strength” anymore. The US readout on this, as usual for the Biden administration, is very illustrative of exactly what Xi is complaining about: a complete disregard for China’s stance on these issues and a refusal to engage with them, or even mention them at all. Not sure that “America first” Trump and the team of China hawks he put together will be much better…

    • Minnesocialism [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      1 hour ago

      What a fascinating read. I have to wonder, is this what it was like during the days of the USSR? Seeing such maturity and responsibility of a superpower is such a breath of fresh air after all this flip flop nonsense of American policy over the last few decades (or rather centuries)…

      In other words, God I love Xi, he’s so fucking cool xigma-male xibe-check xi

    • 2Password2Remember [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      the image of biden-troll’s decrepit, ossified brain trying to understand serious adults discussing foreign policy is so fucking funny to me. “lucy did ease what? w-w-what are you talkin about jack?”

      Death to America

    • HoiPolloi [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      2 hours ago

      The Americans weren’t going to take any of those lessons to heart under Biden, and they sure won’t under Trump’s cabinet. I suppose Xi can now say “I told you so” when Trump starts another disastrous trade war with China.

    • 2Password2Remember [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      Former President Macky Sall, who leads an opposition grouping from abroad called Takku Wallu Senegal, claimed the vote was marred by “massive fraud organised by Pastef”, but without providing details.

      coping and seething from guaido , west african style

      Death to America

  • FuckyWucky [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    5 hours ago

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/18/bangladesh-ex-ministers-face-massacre-charges-hasina-probe-deadline-set

    Bangladesh ex-ministers face ‘massacre’ charges, Hasina probe deadline set


    This is a fucking kangaroo court, I do not think Hasina and her Government was great, but they are not in any way guilty of genocide.

    “They are complicit in enabling massacres by participating in planning, inciting violence, ordering law enforcement officers to shoot on sight, and obstructing efforts to prevent a genocide.”

    Yea i wonder what Yunus’ military and police would do if a similar revolt takes place now. They continue with devaluing the term genocide.

    • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      5 hours ago

      Also, do the Ukrainians even have any ATACMS left at this point?

      https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukrainian-army-used-nearly-all-atacms-missiles-1726014379.html

      An anonymous US official told CNN that the US has supplied Ukraine with several hundred ATACMS missile systems and that Ukraine has used most of them. The official noted that the US has a limited stockpile of missile systems that can be provided to Ukraine without compromising its military readiness.

      I wasn’t able to find another source in a cursory search, but have they even been doing any ATACMS strikes lately?

      And even if they had the missiles, how many vehicles do they actually have left that could launch them, and what’s the chance of those vehicles getting close to the frontline (where they would need to be in order to actually meaningfully strike into Russian territory, the “long-range” here is very relative, these aren’t ICBMs) without getting taken out by the Russians (a whole bunch of artillery systems were lost in the Kursk offensive precisely because they had to be moved closer to the front in order to perform their strikes)

      This whole thing seems symbolic, just the US going “feel free to use these weapons you don’t even have jack biden-troll

      • geikei [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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        15 minutes ago

        They used ATACMS saturation attacks on S300s and S400s. They were also used on more targets than just GBAD. They used an unknown amount targeting command assets and radars in Crimea, as well as some training grounds in various parts of Ukraine which resulted in likely hundreds of casualties. They number of ATACMS strikes has been prob ~20 +/- 5. And the Salvo size is 4-12 missiles for each strickes. I’d guess they have used ~200

      • kittin [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        59 minutes ago

        Maybe it’s to force Trump to have to rescind the authorization or to give cover to the British and Fr*nch to use theirs

  • sisatici [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    7 hours ago

    My prediction: trump is gonna continue status quo on arming Ukraine. When defeat is imminent, he will ask putin to wait to finish the job soon after trumps term ends

    • merthyr1831@lemmy.ml
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      4 hours ago

      The F-16s were always a gimmick. They’re easily outmatched by modern Russian aircraft (in the numbers Ukraine was given) and take ages to train on since Ukrainian pilots are used to Soviet aircraft.

      Even without hypothetical air-to-air combat (which is a distant memory in this war) even the S-200 system is capable of taking down an F-16 so the more modern systems are more than a threat.

      Their usefulness was mainly as a carrier for the “deep strike” missiles (Storm shadow) in order to give them decent range, but that was quickly shuttled after Russian Kinzhals started meticulously hunting down any F-16s they could find on the ground.

  • scarcity_of_the_self [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    7 hours ago

    That’s too bad, practically the only user in this thread who seemed cool has deleted. Honestly cannot blame them. If you don’t get a sense of horror looking at people readying themselves for another four years of posting like this about American politics, you should. I tried blocking 80-plus people but it’s still just so bad. I will take this as my cue to leave. Maybe I will be back when I finish writing about how fears of UFOs and mind control and other phantasms are used to control psychologically vulnerable people, how infiltrated nonviolent antifascist or social change orgs take advantage of the fear of informants to control their recruits’ behavior, and how that kind of dovetails with the oblique denial of “conspiracy thinking” you see from much of the online left still.

    I will be back with a doozy or not at all. If I am not back I have either decided to turn it into something better or died. Look around the corner. Don’t reply to this.