Wow, a coherent analysis.
It’s worth reiterating just how outnumbered Russian forces were in 2022, with the Ukrainians possessing around a 4 to 1 advantage in manpower in theatre, and both sides using very similar equipment. I was shocked when Russia invaded. The western media endlessly repeated that the Russians had 150,000 troops on the border, and my thoughts were “nothing will happen until that at least doubles”.
Winter is closing in now. Ukraine once again has a few months of relative stability to “recruit” and theorize on how to organize and equip a new new new model army for the third year running. This time, there isn’t much to base their forces around. Even MRAP’s are getting increasing scarce. This time, they might accept that their their forces have some operational limitations imposed on them by equipment deficiencies. Right now I think Ukraine is the weakest it has been, but, next year we’ll likely finally see increases production and provision of NATO equipment to Ukraine.
It’s grim, and it’s a long way from over for everyone involved.
Going with “Measure of a Man” S02E09.