In Hollywood, the first weekend of May is traditionally seen as the official kick-off of the summer movie season: an auspicious blockbuster date that has, of late, become rather a boring one.
Since 2007, when Spider-Man 3 (three full cycles ago in that deathless franchise) topped the box office – and barring two years where the global pandemic threw the mainstream release schedule into disarray – that weekend has been the exclusive domain of Marvel superhero adaptations, through to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 claiming the No 1 spot last May. That stranglehold was set to continue this year, with the legacy-milking superhero mash-up comedy Deadpool & Wolverine scheduled for a 3 May release. It doubtless would have creamed the competition, too, had last year’s Hollywood strikes not delayed it to July.
And so, with the coveted early-May date open to a cape-free blockbuster for the first time since the Bush administration, Universal spotted an opportunity for its action romcom The Fall Guy, about a Hollywood stunt man tangled in an insider conspiracy.
They had reason to be confident. Ryan Gosling was riding a wave of public goodwill after his film-stealing turn in last year’s top grosser Barbie; pairing him with Emily Blunt, fresh from her appearance in Barbie’s summer sibling Oppenheimer, was a neat marketing angle the stars gamely launched as a presenting duo at the Oscars in March. Two days later, the film premiered to jubilant audience reactions at the hip SXSW festival. It seemed director David Leitch, who drove the comparably goofy action flick Bullet Train to a $240m gross in 2022, had another hit on his hands.
Or not, as it turned out. The Fall Guy opened modestly in the US, taking a little over $27m in its first weekend. At the time of writing, it’s made nearly $108m worldwide – not a bomb, but not a palpable hit either. Reviews have been solid; audience scores are good. All indications are that it’s a crowdpleaser, at least for the medium-sized crowds that are showing up. But why aren’t they bigger?
I think the issue is that May is usually a big earner for the film industry but everything is under-performing so far. However, as they mention, the writer’s strike has pushed films back a month or two and I expect the start of the blockbuster season will be with the release of Furiosa this week but it should have an easy run at the box office as things are quiet until mid June into July: Inside Out 2, Quiet Place: Day One, Despicable Me 4, Twisters? and then Deadpool & Wolverine which is shaping up to be the big hit of the summer, unless Borderlands is better than it looks. Alien: Romulus and Beetlejuice² then finish out through to September. That’s a lot of heavy lifting being done by franchises with only films like Sting and The Watched having much potential to be breakout original hits.