• OsrsNeedsF2P@lemmy.ml
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    4
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    30 days ago

    him being found guilty will not negatively affect his supporters

    Yes, but they were going to vote for him anyways. Trump needs to win more moderates/alt leftists. His betting odds (which are generally much more reliable than polls) dropped 3% after his verdict landed: https://electionbettingodds.com/

    • Timecircleline@sh.itjust.works
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      2
      ·
      28 days ago

      I mean it makes sense. There are bets for everything. But the political betting odds website SENT me. Do you have anything to back up that they are more reliable than polls? I’m genuinely curious.

      • OsrsNeedsF2P@lemmy.ml
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        ·
        edit-2
        28 days ago

        Betting odds tend to be the best prediction method for 2 reasons; the first is there is no other good prediction method, and the second is that people who spend time doing analysis will bet on one side if that side’s odds are better than the market is giving it credit for. As an example, my stats professor in 2016 bet 1000$ on Trump, not because he wanted Trump to win, but because he saw the betting market was only giving Trump like 30% odds, whereas my prof estimated it was closer to 35 (or something). For the record, the polls had Trump at like 2% during this time.

        • Timecircleline@sh.itjust.works
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          28 days ago

          Haha that’s so interesting that your stats prof can make some extra dollars on the side through analysis. That’s a huge discrepancy between the betting odds and the polls