- cross-posted to:
- politics@beehaw.org
- cross-posted to:
- politics@beehaw.org
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Interesting but unsurprising polling perhaps. Although the headline is only 18% of leavers think Brexit has been a success, it does also include 61% still think it will turn out well in the end. 72% of the leavers would still vote for Brexit even knowing how it’s turned out.
Given how close the referendum was, this is yet another poll suggesting the vote would have tipped the other way if run now. Although that is just illustrative, it’s quite different to voting to join the EU now which I doubt would be popular.
I think the threshold for rejoining is much higher than it was for leaving - we’d have to sign up to the Euro, we’d get no rebates despite the ongoing borked common agricultural policy, and all the negative aspects of the EU would come back to the fore. I was a remainer, but many of the negatives of the EU have often been ignored due to the polarisation of the debate, including by EU citizens who have focused on a them-vs-us mentality thanks to the antagnostic approach of the Conservative government.
But the EU does have serious problems - structural problems in the Eurozone, unfixed since the 2008 debt crisis, major issues with democratic accountability and unaddressed financial corruption, difficulties effectively dealing with members like Hungry and Poland as they slide towards more authoritarianism, and lack of consensus on dealing with the migration issues which continue to cost lives and are a stain on the entire EU’s (and the UK’s) reputation. Despite being a remainer, if I’m honest I’m not sure how I’d vote.
I’d vote to rejoin, Euro and all. The overall benefit is worth it.
But the EU members would certainly have something to say about it. While I would expect Germany to welcome us back, France may well veto.
That alone makes rejoin discussion feel somewhat premature. The path to rejoining the EU has not been cleared yet. It will be a long time yet until that becomes a possibility.
They’d do what the EU always does, split off in to groups of Yes and No, and use that to drive a better negotiation position.
I see no practical reason why France, or any other net contributor, would object to another net contributor joining, as long as all of the UK’s historic exceptions were removed of course.
That isn’t to say it would be quick, or easy.
It would be a negotiation. Neither side would get everything they wanted. Though the UK would be the weaker party. When the successful negotiations would announced, it would be the value of both parties. I don’t say currencies, as the pound may be the high price we pay.
Polls are valued by the data they produce and what you want those polls to say.
It only states the opinion of those who voted in 2016. If we had another vote in 2026 then we would have a new generation of voters added into the mix. This is why other polls show that a vast majority would vote to rejoin the EU if given the chance.
