This prediction market has May at 50%, and that’s mainly because I keep buying it off he back of news like this. Seems like a lot of people are May doubters.

Reasons I think May is the most likely candidate are:

• expected polling bounce off a giveaway budget in March
• small boat numbers are at their natural minimum and only rise as Summer begin
• later in the year you start running into things like party conference, which you don’t want to miss, and fuel bills, which are going to be a bad news story again. Even if you rank “holding on to power above all else” as the most important thing, a late Q4 election looks a terrible mistake.