My opinion is that there will either be a huge purge as you say, or a split in the party at some point. It very much depends on how much of a kicking they take at the next election and who they elect as leader in the aftermath of that defeat.

Sunak, if anything, is making their position worse daily in how the public perceives the Tory party. He is very inactive in government, and the things he does push have a only negative outcomes. He refuses to deal with renegade MPs. Dorries should have had the whip removed, and been reported to the privileges committee. He should have attended the vote with Johnson. He has made some incredible appointments, which basically tells everyone to go **** themselves. I am starting to think he believes in his own entitlement to be PM just because of who he is. He made zero appearances in the last by-elections, and made next to nothing in comments around that time. People in natural Tory areas are feeling abandoned.

All governments, Labour included, try to promote some good news or spin around a year before they know an election will take place. And yet we have nothing from the Tories. We are only hearing more doom, gloom and despondency. 30p Lee actually publicly stated that they would fight their next election with culture wars.

Not every MP is in it to be dishonest. And there are plenty dishonest MPs on both sides of the house. I can easily see that many Tory MPs have stayed firstly for security, it is their livelihood after all, and secondly with the illusion that they could fix the party. If the Tories take the kicking that is looking likely, then the frog will be out of the slow boil and straight into the frying pan. The good MPs will see exactly where the support in the party lies with the post mortem of the election.

If the Tories continue as they are and elect someone like Braverman as leader, many will just quit, and that really could be the final death knell. Mordant is the strange one that leaves predictions wide open. Mostly because she is willing to adapt. Braverman, Davies etc have taken a firm line with their policies. They will never change because of the background events that are making them stay as an MP. It has been said time and time again that Ben Wallace would be the best steady head they could get to lead. This would be fine for the interim and he would remove the power of the ERG and the NZSG. But he lacks the charisma required to be popular in the media. He would end up looking like an Ian Duncan Smith. Ben Wallace would stop a lot of good MPs from leaving imo, and possibly deselect some of the more extreme bad personalities.