The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.

The mean of the bootstrapped estimates of the tipping time is 〈tc〉 = 2050, and the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095.

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Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications, it is important to monitor the flow and EWS [early warning signs] from direct measurements.

  • ᴇᴍᴘᴇʀᴏʀ 帝OPAEnglish
    8·
    11 months ago

    The North Atlantic Drift Current is a conveyor belt of warm water that comes from the Gulf Stream down in the Caribbean up to NW Europe. This keeps our climate warmer than it should be for its latitude (Canada, for example. We are further north than Mongolia).

    Global warming is having effects like melting the Greenland ice sheet, which is pumping vast quantities of fresh water into the North Atlantic which has serious effects on the NADC. It’s already unstable and could “switch off” pretty quickly. The ironic knock-on effect would be that global warming would make the UK colder. Quite what that would mean is unclear but it is likely to see lower rainfall and a big drop in productive farmland.

    Previous models suggested this wouldn’t happen until the next century but this model suggests it is most likely to happen in the middle of this century with the 95% confidence limit suggesting any time from late Inthis century down to… well the day after tomorrow.

      • ᴇᴍᴘᴇʀᴏʀ 帝OPAEnglish
        3·
        11 months ago

        You may have me there. I have a reasonable grasp of Geoscience but my knowledge of Minecraft is limited to a quick early game or two and whatever my nephew has said to me about it (he showed me a house he’d designed with a zombie trap built in).

    • charlytune@mander.xyzEnglish
      2·
      11 months ago

      Was that an intentional reference at the end there to the film where a sudden ice age overwhelms the northern hemisphere, cos if so, nicely done.

      • ᴇᴍᴘᴇʀᴏʀ 帝OPAEnglish
        2·
        11 months ago

        It wasn’t planned but as I was drawing to the end of the sentence I realised it would work nicely as 2025 is right around the corner. That isn’t to imply that a film based on alien-botherer Whitley Strieber’s book is an accurate prediction of future events but it amused me.