🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

Labour lead is twenty-three percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.

Con 25% (+1)

Lab 48% (+1)

Lib Dem 10% (-2)

Other 17% (+1)

Fieldwork: 29th June - 3rd July 2023 Sample: 1,507 GB adults (Changes from 23rd - 26th June 2023)

  • that_ginger_oneOPEnglish
    8·
    1 year ago

    Flavible:

    Party Pred % Pred Seats
    CON 25.0% 132
    LAB 48.0% 403
    LD 10.0% 36
    REFUK 5.0% 0
    Green 5.0% 1
    SNP 4% 53
    PC 0.5% 3

    Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):

    Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
    CON 44.7% 375 25.0% 0 270 -311 64
    LAB 33.0% 198 48.0% 297 0 +297 495
    LIB 11.8% 8 10% 9 2 +7 15
    Reform 2.1% 0 5% 0 0 +0 0
    Green 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1
    SNP 4.0% 48 4.6% 6 0 +6 54
    PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
    Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
    N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

    Scotland EC Break-Down

    Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
    21% 26% 2% 0% 2% 47%
    • This one just feels wrong with the scotland numbers

    PrincipleFish

    • Deltapoll give easy access to their regions breakdown so I also put this one through the principlefish election predictor:

    • SyldonEnglish
      7·
      1 year ago

      More would vote green if we had a PR voting system. The same goes for LD. The interesting part for me would be how protest votes either decline or rise. With PR every vote counts. People are happy to throw a protest vote in when it doesn’t matter due to FPTP.

      • that_ginger_oneOPEnglish
        2·
        1 year ago

        Of polls recently, past week or so, this one has both Green and REF on less than the others I remember. 7% & 8% shuffling between them.

        But those polls had Lab lower than 48% so could be a Deltapoll thing, weighting etc.

        I will be interested in the true GE numbers they get, will REF get Con protest votes if the boomers still vote in the same numbers as usual (almost all REF support was 55+) and will Greens regress back to 2-3% because the plurality of their vote goes tactical…

        It’s a joke that FPTP turns all these parties into a joke.

        • SyldonEnglish
          12·
          1 year ago

          In FPTP people vote to block who they do not want, not what they desire. It is a very regressive system that does not promote good policies. There are no good arguments for FPTP anymore. We are enduring the most right wing government in our history. Worse still is that if the Tories did not win in 2019, the alternative would have been an ultra far left government.

      • that_ginger_oneOPEnglish
        1·
        1 year ago

        I’m actually super sceptical of the Scotland only numbers in the poll, I expect fewer SNP seats overall as a hunch. But the LibDem numbers they have for Scotland I flat out don’t believe.

        Polling error, chance, and/or weighting I don’t know, but colour me sceptical.