The UK economy is going to grow less than expected this year - with the International Monetary Fund warning the country will remain the second worst performer in the G7.
Newly revised forecasts indicate the UK’s gross domestic product will expand by just 0.5% in 2024 - a slight downgrade from previous estimates in January - compared with global growth of 3.2%.
However, UK GDP is tipped to increase by 1.5% in 2025 - making it the third-best performer among G7 nations - as households recover following a prolonged cost of living crisis.
According to the IMF, inflation in the British economy will remain at about 2.5% for the rest of this year but fall towards the Bank of England’s target of 2% next year.
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When looked at per head - with output split across the UK’s population - GDP flatlines, with no growth at all for 2024 and 1.1% in 2025.
Our forecasts for this year were to optimistic but we forecast next year will be much better, until we have to downgrade them to.
However, the good news is, we’ll have a Labour government next year.
To what?
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Newly revised forecasts indicate the UK’s gross domestic product will expand by just 0.5% in 2024 - a slight downgrade from previous estimates in January - compared with global growth of 3.2%.
However, UK GDP is tipped to increase by 1.5% in 2025 - making it the third-best performer among G7 nations - as households recover following a prolonged cost of living crisis.
This metric gives a better sense of living standards and how the economy feels for individuals by adjusting for the UK’s growing population with record legal immigration flows.
According to the IMF, the global economy has been “remarkably resilient” over the past two years - but the escalating conflict in the Middle East could push up food and energy prices around the world.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s director of research, said: “Yet, despite many gloomy predictions, the world avoided a recession, the banking system proved largely resilient, and major emerging market economies did not suffer sudden stops.”
While negative risks include a slow recovery of China’s troubled property sector, economists believe the outlook could be improved if elections being held around the world lead to tax cuts and a short-term boost to activity.
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