🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

📈18pt Labour lead

🌹Lab 46 (+3) 🌳Con 28 (-3) 🔶LD 11 (+1) ➡️Reform 4 (-1) 🌍Green 4 (+1) 🎗️SNP 3 (-1) ⬜️Other 4 (=)

2,216 UK adults, 30 June - 2 July

(chg from 23-25 June)

  • that_ginger_oneOPEnglish
    3·
    1 year ago

    Flavible:

    Party Pred % Pred Seats
    CON 28.0% 177
    LAB 46.0% 380
    LD 11.0% 35
    REFUK 4.0% 0
    Green 4.0% 1
    SNP 3% 32
    PC 0.5% 3

    Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):

    Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
    CON 44.7% 375 28.0% 1 236 -235 141
    LAB 33.0% 198 46.0% 248 0 +248 445
    LIB 11.8% 8 11% 9 0 +9 17
    Reform 2.1% 0 4% 0 0 +0 0
    Green 2.8% 1 4% 0 0 +0 1
    SNP 4.0% 48 3.5% 0 23 -23 25
    PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
    Other 1.1% 0 3.0% 0 0 +0 0
    N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

    The difference 28% Con vs 24-5% Con is quite something. Still puts Labour in or close to the 400 Club (again).